August 18, 2023

Good morning Bay Islands. We wake up to clear skies, east winds 10-15 mph and seas around 2 feet. Today winds and seas will stay around 10-15 mph and 2 feet, but we are looking at some super calm conditions for the weekend with winds 5-10 mph and seas 1-2 feet (.3-.6 meters), even calmer toward Utila. Monday we will be back to 10-15 mph winds, but starting Tuesday and into next week we should get super calm again. A great time to take your boat out on the sea.
As for rain, we look mostly dry into Sunday. Sunday night into Monday our rain chances go up and we should have 30-40 percent rain chances most days next week, especially at night and early morning.

The tropics definitely are more active as we get toward the end of August. We have a category 4 Hurricane Hilary about to hit Baja and create flooding in the deserts of southern California.

But of more concern to us is the tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center showing in the western Atlantic. I have given you an arrow to show which of the several potential storms it is. The NHC is giving this storm a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 7 days, but most of the computer models are turning it into something. But they also seem to agree that upper level winds from the south will push this storm north around midweek.

This is where the storm is now.

Here it is on Monday night.

Here is where it is forecast to turn to the north, over Haiti and Dominican Republic.

And finally moving into the Atlantic on Friday. Our concern is what if the models are wrong about the storm turning north? If it doesn’t turn north, it would be something for us to worry about next weekend. Right now that is a very low chance, but it something to watch this week. We’ll keep an eye on it. High and low tides are not very strong right now. Have a great Friday!