Sept. 9, 2021

Sept. 9, 2021: Good morning Roatan: As you can see in the map, the tropical wave we’ve been talking about all week is closing in, but the weather models still don’t want to give us much rain. Let’s hope they’re wrong.

Today we’ll have increasing clouds and a chance of rain, especially in the evening and overnight. Winds will be from the east at 12-17 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter).

Tomorrow the chance of rain continues, with calmer winds and seas. Our best chance of rain ends Saturday morning, and that’s when the winds pick up again. Have a great Thursday!

Sept. 8, 2021

Sept. 8, 2021: For the second time in two weeks, we may have a tropical wave pass over our heads and not give us much rain. At least that is what the models are predicting. This video is the European model of total rainfall into Saturday night, and you can see that it barely gives us half an inch and leaves a rain hole over Guanaja. These things aren’t exact, so we’ll have a shot at some rain, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. And, sadly, the forecast is even drier after this weekend.

Today we’ll have TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) with east winds 15-20 mph and 3-foot (1 meter) seas during the day, 20-25 mph and 4-foot seas (1.3 meters) at night.

Tomorrow, the best chance of rain is in the evening with typical winds and seas.

The rain chance continues overnight Thursday into Friday. On Friday the winds should be a bit calmer at 10-15 mph, though the winds return Friday evening. The weekend looks a bit windier than normal with only a small chance of an evening shower. Have a great Wednesday!

Sept. 7, 2021

This morning a pretty big storm is set up on the southern coast of Belize. In this satellite run from around 7 a.m. today, you can see the lightening strikes at the center. That storm is throwing some high clouds this way, but it’s not going to come over us, unfortunately.

Today we’ll have TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) with east winds 15-20 mph during the day and 20-25 mph as evening falls. Daytime seas are at 2 feet (.6 meter) and evening seas at 3-4 feet (1 to 1.3 meters). Only a very slight chance of an isolated shower around the island. That will continue tomorrow. Thursday is the day we might see an increase in rain chances and that will continue into Friday. Have a great Tuesday!

Sept. 6, 2021

Sept. 6, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! We wake up in a familiar position — with clouds to the east and clouds to the west but not very many over our heads.

We continue with mostly sunny skies and winds a little lower than normal at 7-12 mph during the day, getting up to 15-20 mph this evening. Seas will be at 2 feet (.6 meters) during the day and 3 feet (1 meter) as we get to evening. There will be a chance of an evening shower.

Tuesday winds should pick up a little to 15-20 mph during the day and 20-25 in the evening, and seas at 3 feet (1 meter) during the day and 4 feet (1.3 meters) at night. Rain is very unlikely. Those conditions will continue Wednesday.

Thursday and especially Friday we have hope that our tropical wave will increase our chances of rain. Have a great Monday!

Sept. 5, 2021

Good morning Roatan. Larry Rapp reported .2 of an inch of rain this morning at West Bay. The only other rain we’ve recorded in the last 24 hours was .01 of an inch just before noon yesterday in Sandy Bay.

There are a few clouds around as you can see in the satellite, so we will keep a chance of an isolated shower around for the morning. Otherwise we will have partly cloudy skies and winds from the east at 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6 to 1 meter). Most of this week we will have TRW (Typical Roatan Weather).

This weekend, starting Friday, we might have a better chance of a shower due to another tropical wave forming off the north coast of Panama and South America, though some models want to move this more into the Pacific. Have a great Sunday!

Sept. 4, 2021

Satellite for Sept. 4, 2021: You can see that our last hope for showers is dying to the east of Guanaja at 8 a.m. Looks like we’re staying dry.

Sept. 4, 2021: Somehow we managed to have a tropical disturbance pass right over us with no rain. As the system passed into Belize it actually got a little better organized and for a time you could see some circulation. As it turns out, we’re simply the losers of the rain lottery. There was certainly rain, as the rain gauges in Belize attest, but we missed out on the fun.

Today we return to TRW (Typical Roatan Weather), though our winds may be a little lower during the day today and tomorrow. We’ll be looking at east winds 10-15 mph during the day and 15-20 mph at night with 2-3 foot (.6 to 1 meter) waves today and tomorrow.

Monday we should be back to 15-20 mph during the day and 20-25 in the evening. During this period there will only be a slight chance of a stray shower. Have a great weekend! North American college football kicks off. Go Dawgs!

August 2021 Rain Totals

August 2021 Rain Totals. Our official rainfall for August was 1.08 inches, which is almost exactly what we got in August during the drought year of 2019. Last year we got 13.36 inches, but last year was one of the wettest ever, especially the last five months, a trend that continued into the first five months of this year. Since then, we’ve been pretty dry, with only 8.5 inches since April 1. It almost feels like I’m back in Oklahoma.

Sept. 3, 2021

We’ve not been very fortunate when it comes to being in the right spot to get rain.

As you can see in the satellite map, we’ve somehow managed to dodge the rain again. This has been a pattern for us when disturbed weather is around. We have another day and a half with this tropical wave. The models really want to give us some rain, especially tonight, so we’ll see if it happens.

Today we’ll have partly to mostly cloudy skies with fairly calm winds at 5-10 mph from the south/southwest during the day, getting a little windier toward nightfall. Seas will be at 2 feet (.6 meters).

Tonight we’ll have the best chance of rain from this system, with east/southeast winds at 20 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter). Tomorrow we’ll have about a 30 percent chance of rain and east/northeast winds 7-15 mph and seas at 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter).

Sunday we’ll have a chance of a shower, mostly in the morning and evening. Winds will be shifting around, but getting windier as we get to the evening.

Monday we go back to TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) for the week ahead meaning winds in the 20 mph range, seas at 2-4 feet (.6 to 1.3 meters), and a very small chance of a passing shower.

Sept. 2, 2021

The 7 a.m. satellite image shows a tropical wave off the Miskito Coast heading our way.
The GFS (U.S.) model predicts 18 millimeters (.70 of an inch) of rain for Coxen Hole through Sunday night.

Yesterday was quite windy and wavy and completely dry. Our tropical wave is getting closer. Right now it is off the Miskito Coast and should arrive here tonight. The The GFS rain total prediction through Sunday night shows 18 centimeters over (.75 inches) Coxen Hole. The Euro model is much more doubtful about us getting much rain, predicting about half an inch in West Bay and less than a quarter of an inch on the west side of the island.

Today we’ll have mostly sunny skies with increasing clouds. Winds will be from the east at 17-22 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter). Tonight we’ll have a decent chance of rain, and that chance extends into Friday and especially Friday night. Winds should be a bit calmer during the day from the east at 7-12 mph and 2 foot (.6 meter) seas, rising to 15-20 mph Friday evening with 3 foot seas.

Over the weekend we should have partly sunny skies and about a 30 percent chance of scattered showers. Winds will continue in the 7-12 mph range during the daytime rising to 15-20 mph in the evenings. Let me know when you see rain and how much. Have a great Thursday!