Sept. 16, 2021: Yesterday was beautiful and fairly calm. This morning is starting out the same, but winds should start to pick up as we get into the evening.
We start out the day with winds in the 10 mph range and seas at 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters), but this evening they will be in the 20 mph range and seas at 2-3 feet (.6 to 1 meter).
Tomorrow will be windier, with east winds 12-17 mph during the day and seas at 3 feet (1 meter) but getting up to 20-25 mph in the evening and seas at 4-5 feet (1.3 to 1.6 meters). Rain is highly unlikely today or tomorrow.
Saturday looks windy as well, with east winds 20-25 mph and seas at 3-4 feet. There will be a small chance of a shower Saturday evening. The first part of next week looks fairly calm, with chances of showers in the evenings.
The area of storms that came off the coast of Africa a couple of days ago (the red X in the middle of the Atlantic) is expected to develop in the next few days, but it is also expected to move north of the Lesser Antilles and stay out of the Caribbean. Only one computer run brings it into the Caribbean, but that could always be the one that gets it right.
Over at the Facebook group Ask Anything Roatan, someone asked when the rainy season starts. Can you believe we can get an answer from 1722? Here is what Philip Ashton, stranded by pirates on an uninhabited Roatan said then:
The rains begin about the middle of October, & continue for five months together, and then the air is raw cold, like our Northeast storms of rain; only at times the Sun breaks out with such an exceeding fierceness, that there is hardly any enduring the heat of it.
Sept. 15, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! We actually had a report of some rain last night. Larry Rapp in West Bay reported .15 of an inch around 9:30 p.m.
I’m posting the satellite from around that time, and you can see the classic scenario for rain on the island just after nightfall. Storms tend to build on the coast of the mainland and reach out toward us. This is why the west side is often wetter than the east side, because they are closer to the mainland. It is also why Utila is generally wetter than Guanaja. I’m going to guess that Utila probably got a good shower last night.
Today should be a very nice day, with light and variable winds and 1 foot (.3 meter) seas. We’ll keep only a very slight chance of one of those evening showers.
Tomorrow the winds will come up to the 5-10 mph range and seas at 1-2 feet (.3-.6 meters). TRW winds (Typical Roatan Weather) will come back on Friday with 15-20 mph east winds and seas at 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters).
We’re also keeping an eye on the tropics. There is a wave with a high likelihood of development off the African coast. Models are keeping it out to sea and keeping it pretty weak, but we’ve seen a trend of models not picking up on the strength of storms so we’ll keep an eye on it. Have a great day (and day off for some of you!)
Sept. 14, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Another day with hardly a cloud in the sky. As you can see from this morning’s satellite, it is unusually clear across the entire Central America region.
Today we’ll have mostly clear skies and east-northeast winds at 7-12 mph and 1-2 foot (.3 to .6 meter) seas. There’s a very small chance of a passing shower this evening. Tomorrow will be a holiday for a lot of folks and it will be the best weather day of the week. Winds will be quite low at 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot (.3 meters), so it will be a great day at the beaches and on the seas. Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday, but the winds start back on Friday. Have a great day!
Sept. 13, 2021: Good morning Roatan! Our skies have been clear with virtually not a cloud in the sky the last 24 hours. We’ll continue mostly sunny today with east winds 15-20 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter).
Tomorrow winds will be a little calmer at 12-17 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters). We’ll also put in a very small chance of an evening shower tomorrow.
Wednesday will be the calmest day of the week with daytime winds in the 10 mph range and seas 1-2 feet (.3-.6 meters) and maybe a 25 percent chance of an evening shower.
Friday and Saturday look pretty windy and dry. Have a great day!
Sept. 12, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Quite a windy day yesterday with winds reaching 30 mph at sea and those windy conditions will continue today, with winds reaching 25-30 mph again and seas at 5 feet (1.6 meters). Continue to be careful at sea. The winds and seas shouldn’t be quite as bad tomorrow, with east winds 17-22 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter). Tuesday winds will be 12-20 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meter). Tuesday evening we’ll put a small chance of a shower back in the forecast. Wednesday looks like the calmest day of the week, with winds 7-12 mph and seas at 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters).
We continue to keep our eyes on the Atlantic, especially that orange X coming off Africa in the next day or so. It is likely to develop and right now the models keep it out to sea, but that can change very quickly. Have a great Sunday!
Sept. 11, 2021: Good morning Roatan! We wake up with some clouds and a lot of wind. Today will be a pretty windy day, with winds in unprotected areas getting up toward 30 mph this afternoon and evening and seas getting up to 6 feet. Be careful out on the waters.
Tomorrow will be similarly windy. Winds will come back to normal levels on Tuesday when there will be a very slight chance of an evening shower.
This is the time of year when we start watching the West African coast for storms that can eventually become hurricanes that could stay to the south and affect us. Right now there are two good candidates coming off the coast of Africa. The current models keep whatever storms these two areas produce in the Atlantic, but we’ll keep an eye on them.
You will also notice that the disturbance that passed over us and gave us hardly any rain is likely to bring flooding to the Texas coast.
Sept. 10, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! This morning we find ourselves in a familiar spot — in a dry slot between areas of rain. Yesterday a little rain fell in some spots — .02 of an inch in Sandy Bay, .01 in Coral View, Larry Rapp reported about 5 minutes of rain in West Bay — but nothing to get excited over. I fear the same will be true today. We’ll keep a small chance of rain in the forecast today, which is more than I can say for the weekend or next week, which look pretty dry. Winds are fairly calm this morning, but winds and seas should pick up as the day goes along.
This weekend looks pretty windy, at 17-22 mph during the day and 22-27 mph in the evening. Seas this weekend, especially tomorrow, may get up to 5 feet (1.6 meters). Winds and seas should get calmer by midweek. Have a great Friday!
Sept. 9, 2021: Good morning Roatan: As you can see in the map, the tropical wave we’ve been talking about all week is closing in, but the weather models still don’t want to give us much rain. Let’s hope they’re wrong.
Today we’ll have increasing clouds and a chance of rain, especially in the evening and overnight. Winds will be from the east at 12-17 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter).
Tomorrow the chance of rain continues, with calmer winds and seas. Our best chance of rain ends Saturday morning, and that’s when the winds pick up again. Have a great Thursday!
Sept. 8, 2021: For the second time in two weeks, we may have a tropical wave pass over our heads and not give us much rain. At least that is what the models are predicting. This video is the European model of total rainfall into Saturday night, and you can see that it barely gives us half an inch and leaves a rain hole over Guanaja. These things aren’t exact, so we’ll have a shot at some rain, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. And, sadly, the forecast is even drier after this weekend.
Today we’ll have TRW (Typical Roatan Weather) with east winds 15-20 mph and 3-foot (1 meter) seas during the day, 20-25 mph and 4-foot seas (1.3 meters) at night.
Tomorrow, the best chance of rain is in the evening with typical winds and seas.
The rain chance continues overnight Thursday into Friday. On Friday the winds should be a bit calmer at 10-15 mph, though the winds return Friday evening. The weekend looks a bit windier than normal with only a small chance of an evening shower. Have a great Wednesday!