Oct. 31, 2022

Oct. 31, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Today should be a nice day with clear skies and calm winds and seas. Tomorrow morning should be sunny, but winds will start turning to the west and increase to around 15 mph in the afternoon with increasing clouds and the approach of what should be Tropical Storm Lisa. The center of the storm is on the northern end of the line of storms you see in this image.

Oct. 31, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Today should be a nice day with clear skies and calm winds and seas. Tomorrow morning should be sunny, but winds will start turning to the west and increase to around 15 mph in the afternoon with increasing clouds and the approach of what should be Tropical Storm Lisa. The center of the storm is on the northern end of the line of storms you see in this image.

Most of the computer models agree that the center will go to our north, so that is a good sign.

As for how much rain we will get, the track of the storm will have a lot to do with that. Notice how we are on the edge of a lot of rain (7 or 8 inches) to our north and not much rain (an inch or two, or even less) to our south. The closer the storm is to us, the more rain we will get, but generally, the south sides of storms are less windy and rainy than the north sides, and chances are good we will be on the south side.

I’m still a little concerned we could see rapid intensification. You will notice that two computer models are forecasting a high-end category 2 storm, which would mean winds near the center at 100 mph or a little more. Most models keep this as a strong┬átropical storm or a low-end category 1 hurricane. Though it isn’t likely, a stronger hurricane is not out of the question. Make your preparations today. Though it is likely we will only get 30-40 mph winds and moderate rain and seas around 5-6 feet, any movement to the south and intensification would put us in danger and there won’t be much time to react. After the storm passes, there is a good chance of rain on Thursday, but Friday into the weekend look nice.

Tropical update for Oct. 30, 2022

Good morning Roatan. If there are two main points this morning, they are: 1. The storm looks like it is headed toward us, probably Wednesday. 2. It is unlikely to be a strong hurricane. Most models are forecasting Tropical Storm Lisa, which would put winds between 39 and 73 mph. This is the US GFS forecast model and there is now good agreement among the various models that this is close to the track that this storm will take.

The storm is now in the eastern Caribbean, about halfway between the Dominican Republic and Venezuela. Though it isn’t yet a tropical depression, there is what clearly looks like it could be a center this morning.

As you can see from the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center, the storm is forecast to come our way, with a slight move to the south at the end. That isn’t good for us and might remind some people of how Hurricane Mitch came south over the islands in 1998, but…

Currently the strongest forecast for this storm is the Canadian, which puts it at 999 millibars of pressure as it moves just to our north.

At 999 millibars, we would be looking at a mid-range tropical storm with peak winds around 50 mph.

Right now the wind forecast for the island is around 28 mph. That is because the storm is currently forecast to go just north of the island, and the south side of a storm is the weaker side. There are two reasons to be careful about this: 1. Forecast models have a history of underestimating storms in the western Caribbean and 2. Storm paths can easily change, and if this storm moved south right over us, we would have higher winds.

Most models have the storm as a tropical storm at 72-96 hours, which is when it is expected to pass by us. A few even have it not quite making it to tropical storm force (39 mph). Let’s hope they are right.

Oct. 30, 2022

Oct. 30, 2022: Good morning Roatan. Yesterday morning we picked up half an inch on Jonesville Point and many locations have picked up a small shower this morning. The big winner yesterday was West End with 1.29 inches around 9:30 a.m. We’ll keep a small chance of rain around until about noon or early afternoon after which we should be mostly sunny with light winds and seas 1-2 feet. Monday and Tuesday morning look dry and fairly calm. Our tropical weather disturbance should come Wednesday, perhaps early. More on that in the tropical update.

Oct. 29, 2022

Oct. 29, 2022: Good morning Roatan. We’ve had a few light showers around the island this morning, amounting to a few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch of rain. Today we will have a chance of a light shower around this morning. Otherwise we will have partly cloudy skies and light winds and seas. Tomorrow we will again have a chance of morning showers and light winds and seas 1-2 feet. The first part of next week looks dry and fairly calm. The mid to late part of this week could be affected by tropical weather. We will discuss that in the tropical update.

Oct. 28, 2022

Oct. 28, 2022: Good morning Roatan. Our calm winds and seas now look like they should last through Tuesday with only small chances of rain Saturday and Sunday mornings. The main story is the tropical situation and even there it looks like there may be good news and bad news. First the bad news.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the likelihood of a tropical depression forming in the next five days to 70 percent. The good news is that none of the computer models are showing this becoming a very strong storm and they widely disagree over where it is going, with some showing is wandering aimlessly around the Caribbean and not doing much. We should have a much better idea by Sunday. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Tropical update for Oct. 27, 2022

Tropical update for Oct. 27, 2022: There isn’t a whole lot of change in our forecast. The storms look a little more impressive this morning. The National Hurricane Center gives these storms off the coast of Venezuela and Guyana a 50 percent chance of forming a tropical depression in the next five days. We should know a lot more about this storm over the weekend as we see it actually forming. The European model isn’t making this into a big storm and the GFS is very aggressive in making it a storm and bouncing it around the Caribbean. We’ll keep an eye on it. If it affects us, we’re still looking at Tuesday or Wednesday most likely. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Oct. 27, 2022

Oct. 27, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Winds are nice and calm and skies are clear and it should continue that way, probably through Monday. Saturday night into Sunday there is about a 40 percent chance of rain and that is the only decent chance for the next five days. Then we watch the tropics. More on that in the tropical update. Have a great Thursday.

Tropical update for Oct. 26, 2022

Satellite at 6 a.m.

On our satellite this morning, we can see tropical moisture in a familiar place, off the coast of northern South America, very similar to where Hurricane Ian and so many other hurricanes we have to worry about come from. This time there is a front drawn in yellow that these storms are going to merge with. Most computers show this storm gathering strength and moving west along the northern coast of South America. By Monday it should be entering the eastern Caribbean. By then we will have a better idea as to how strong and where this storm is heading. If it effects us, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week are the days to worry about. Again, nothing is certain, but there is a growing belief that some sort of tropical storm or hurricane will be entering the Caribbean by the end of this weekend. The US GFS that yesterday said it would turn north, now has it heading generally toward Nicaragua and Honduras. As always we need to remain watchful.

Oct. 26, 2022

ood morning, Roatan! We wake up with winds 10-15 mph and seas at 3 feet on the south side. Winds will be around 10 mph today and seas at 2 feet under clear skies. Winds and seas should be even calmer tomorrow, around 5 mph and 1 foot. Those conditions continue at least through the weekend. Our next decent chance of rain is around 30 percent on Sunday morning and perhaps 50 percent on Monday. After that we look toward to the Caribbean to see what happens with our tropical wave coming from South America. More on that in the tropical update. Have a great Wednesday!

Oct. 25, 2022 Tropical update

The National Hurricane Center has marked out an area where tropical development is possible off the north coast of Venezuela, shown by the green arrow. There is a lot of disagreement among the computers as to what will happen with this system, or if anything at all will happen. The US GFS shows rapid development, but also a strong turn to the north, shown by the red arrow. The European and Canadian models show movement more to the west, shown by the pink arrow, but the Euro doesn’t show it developing much, and only bringing us showers the middle of next week, while the Canadian shows it forming into a storm through the Caribbean. If we get any effects from this, it will be about a week from now, and nothing is certain. We will keep an eye on it.