Oct. 10, 2021

Oct. 10, 2021: Sandy Bay picked up .06 of an inch early this morning. Politilly got .32 of an inch around midday yesterday. Most of us stayed pretty dry.
This week we’ll see fairly calm mornings with evening winds in the 10-15 mph range and seas getting up to 2 feet. There will only be a very slight chance of an overnight shower each day. Have a great Sunday!

Oct. 9, 2021

Oct. 9, 2021: No rain has been measured on the island since yesterday morning. Today we will have fairly calm winds and seas. Tonight we’ll have a small chance of rain, but after that things look pretty dry.

Tomorrow will be calm as well.

Winds should pick up on Monday into next week, but only at about 10-15 mph and 2 foot seas, so that won’t be too bad. Have a great weekend!

Oct. 8, 2021

Oct. 8, 2021: Rain totals for the last two days are as follows:

West Bay – 2.1 inches
Sandy Bay – 1.98
Mud Hole – 2.06
Coral View – 1.46
Politilly – 1.07
Lucy Point – 1.13
Camp Bay – 1.8
In the end, the models turned out to be pretty accurate. I doubted we would get as much rain yesterday as we did, but I was wrong and the models were right.
Our tropical wave is now in the Pacific trying to become a tropical storm and potentially threatening the Mexico coast. Today we will have partly cloudy skies and a chance of a shower, especially in the evening. Winds will be from the east/northeast at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet. Tomorrow winds will be lighter at 5-10 mph and seas at 1 feet. There will also be a chance of an evening shower tomorrow, but after that things look pretty dry starting Sunday and into next week. Trade winds should pick up a little on Tuesday.

We haven’t mentioned it much, but we are in a period of king tides, with perigee (the closest approach of the moon) aligning with the new moon, so seas have been up about a foot and a half over the average low tide and low tides haven’t been very low. Have a great Friday!

Oct. 7, 2021

Oct. 7, 2021: Good morning, Roatan! Most of us got between half an inch and three quarters of an inch of rain, much of it last night, though First Bight reported about an inch and a half. Utila checked in with .75 of an inch.

Today rains will be more scattered, perhaps a 40 percent chance, and mostly this evening. Winds will be in the 12-17 mph range and seas at 2 feet.

Tomorrow will be calmer, with winds 5-10 mph and seas at 1-2 feet. Rain chances will also be lower, around 30 percent.

Those conditions will continue through the weekend. Next week looks dry and a little windier. Have a great day!

Oct. 6, 2021

Oct. 6, 2021: The rain is on the way. It should start for most of us today, last through the night and into tomorrow. Most models forecast 1 to 2 inches over the next two days. Winds will be 5-10 mph this morning and 15-20 mph tonight and tomorrow. Seas are pretty calm this morning, but should get up to 2 feet tonight and tomorrow. Starting Friday, rain chances will be back down to around 30 percent and mostly at night. Enjoy the rain!

Oct. 5, 2021

We are still on schedule to have a tropical wave pass through Wednesday night into Thursday. The European model only wants to give us an inch, but the U.S. model is indicating two inches. My guess is some folks will be in between, but you know when you get under a tropical downpour, the inches can build up quick.

This map shows the U.S. model prediction for rain into Friday.

Today we should have relatively calm winds and seas and a small chance of a scattered shower early and a good chance late in the day.

Tomorrow we’ll have a good chance of rain during the day and winds will pick up into the 10-15 mph range, with seas at 2 feet.

Wednesday night should be the rainiest, with winds up to 20 mph and seas at 2 feet. Those winds and seas will follow us into Thursday with a good chance of rain. Calmer conditions and smaller chances of rain should return for the weekend.

Have a great Tuesday!

Oct. 4, 2021

Welp, I normally do the forecast in the Facebook group first and then copy it here. Didn’t expect my forecast to break Facebook, but evidently it did. What’s worse is the loss of WhatsApp, which is the main method of communication for islanders. Somebody tell Mark Zuckerburg to turn everything off and turn it back on again.

The long and short of it is many on the east side of the island saw good rain yesterday and others saw some this morning. The west side hasn’t seen much, though they reported a little rain this morning, too.

Today and tomorrow we will continue to have calm winds and seas and scattered showers. But Wednesday evening into Thursday we will have a tropical wave pass through that should get everyone wet. Winds will also get up into the 20 mph range. The rain chance lingers into Friday. This weekend looks to be calm again. Have a great Monday.

This model forecasts rain moving through from Wednesday evening into Friday evening.

Oct. 2, 2021

Yesterday I pointed out that the current U.S. GFS model showed the possibility of a tropical storm, or perhaps even a hurricane, to our north for next weekend. This morning, as you can see in the model for Thursday night, it is still looking for tropical development, but it has lowered its intensity. That is the thing about these models. They are pretty good two days out. They are pretty bad a week out. But they are also pretty good at sensing that something is coming, just not how strong it will be. We’ll look at other models in the comments.

This is the European model for Wednesday night. Notice is shows widespread showers in our region, but does not show a rotating cyclone.

This is the German ICON model for Wednesday afternoon. This model shows widespread showers but does not show a rotating cyclone.

As for the near-term weather, we’ll have moderate east winds today at 12-17 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters).

Tomorrow there is a chance of a morning shower and winds and seas will be calm. Those calm conditions will continue into next week, with only a small chance of a shower early in the week. As we discussed above, the chance of rain goes up Wednesday and Thursday.

Oct. 1, 2021

Oct. 1, 2021: Good morning and welcome to October. We’re officially recording .88 of an inch for the month, well under our average of 4.84. That is the least rain in September since 2009. We close out the dry season with 6.74 inches of rain since May 1, a period that on average should see 20.76 inches. As you can see from the chart, October is the start of the rainy season, but it won’t start out rainy.

Today will be mostly sunny with east winds 15-20 mph and 2-3 foot (.6 to 1 meter) seas. There will be a slight chance of an overnight shower.

Tomorrow winds will be 12-17 mph and 2 foot seas, with perhaps a little better chance of an overnight shower, around 30 percent.

Sunday we return to flat calm seas and winds. Each day through the week will have a small chance of a scattered shower, but there is an indication there may be some tropical development toward the end of the week, meaning we have some hope for rainier weather toward next weekend. Have a great Friday!

Sept. 30, 2021

Sept. 30, 2021: Good morning Roatan! Today we have moderate winds and surf, perhaps half a meter at the reef. That may grow to around a meter by evening, as winds get up toward 20 mph for the first time in awhile. There’s no rain in the forecast for today as we close out September on a dry note.
Tomorrow will be very similar, with the exception that tomorrow night we will have a small chance of a scattered shower.
On Sunday, winds and seas calm again and it will be smooth sailing into next week. Rain chances should increase toward the end of next week. A cold front will get as far south as northern Yucatan. While it won’t get this far, it should push more moisture into our area, giving us better rain chances toward the end of next week.
In other news, Tropical Storm Victor has emerged off the African coast and it is now forecast to stay in the Atlantic, so there are no immediate tropical threats. Some models are indicated that a disturbance near Panama could move north and begin becoming tropical the weekend of Oct. 9, but that is far from certain. We’ll keep an eye on it. Have a great Thursday!