Feb. 19, 2023

Good morning, Bay Islands! Many of us got a small shower just after midnight. Sandy Bay got the most rain with about a quarter inch. We got .12 of an inch here on Jonesville Point. Most of us picked up a shower midday yesterday for up to a third of an inch.

Satellite image at 7:15 a.m.

Most of the thick clouds have moved to our west. We have a few clouds to our east, so we can’t say it will be totally dry today. There will be a small chance of a scattered shower through today, but we will be mostly sunny. Winds have turned slightly to the northeast, so the waves on the north side are about 3.5 feet this morning, 3 feet on the southside. We will continue to see winds from the east/northeast at 15 mph and seas around 3 feet.

Tonight into tomorrow morning we have another chance of a shower. Winds tomorrow will be from the east/northeast at 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet. Tomorrow night there is a smaller chance of a shower, perhaps 20 percent. Tuesday will be nice, but Tuesday night those 30 mph east winds return. Things turn dry. Have a great Sunday!

Feb. 18, 2028

Satellite image at 7:30 a.m.

Feb. 18, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. Utila got .08 of an inch early this morning.

What a difference a day makes! Winds were much calmer last night than they have been in recent nights.

There are quite a bit of clouds to our east. They should move our way in an hour or two and may bring a scattered shower through the mid-morning.

This afternoon should be mostly sunny. There is another 40 percent chance of a shower tonight into tomorrow morning and a 20 percent chance Sunday night into Monday morning. After that the forecast is very dry. Winds will remain 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet through Tuesday morning. Starting Tuesday night we get the strong east winds back. Have a great weekend!

Feb. 17, 2023

Feb. 17, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands. We had our windiest night yet last night, with winds up to 39 mph at 10 pm and seas on the south side got over 7 feet. This morning seas are back down to 4 feet on the south side and 2 feet on the north side. The good news is that the seas get better for the weekend.
Winds will be 15-20 mph this afternoon and seas at 3 feet. Ferry trips will be OK all the way through Monday, with seas toward Ceiba at 1 foot in the mornings and 2 feet in the evenings.
The bad news is that our rain chances have been decreasing. What we thought might be a good chance of rain has gone down to 30-40 percent in the early mornings for Saturday and Sunday and perhaps 20 percent for Monday morning. Tuesday we get back to windy and dry weather. Have a great Friday!

Feb. 16, 2023

Feb. 16, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! Winds got up to 36 mph last night and seas were nearly 7 feet at 10 p.m., but they’ve calmed to 25 mph from the southeast and 4 feet on the southside, 2 feet on the northside.
We have another windy and dry day ahead, with winds calming to 20 mph and seas 3-4 feet after noon, but increasing again this evening to around 35 mph and seas to 6 feet.
Friday winds get better, especially Friday afternoon and night with 15 mph winds and 3 foot seas that will stay with us through the weekend. Monday looks even calmer than that. Each night and early morning we will have chances at scattered showers, especially Friday night into Saturday morning, but we won’t have as much rain as we had last weekend. Starting Tuesday the windy, dry conditions return and after that there is no rain in the long-range forecast. It looks like we are really starting to get into dry season. Have a great Thursday!

Feb. 15, 2023

Good morning, Bay Islands. We definitely got those gusty winds! We got up to 32 mph last night. Seas on the south side are 4-5 feet and 2-3 feet on the north side. Winds will continue gusty through the day at 20-25 mph. If you’re wanting to go on the yacht, the mornings will be a little better, as seas will get calmer toward La Ceiba. On the afternoon trip seas will be 4-5 feet the whole way today and tomorrow. Friday winds start to calm a little, with morning winds at 20 mph and afternoon winds at 15 mph. Saturday winds will be around 15 mph and Sunday and Monday 10-15 mph. Saturday there will be scattered showers and Sunday and Monday there will chances of morning showers. We return to dry and windy conditions next Tuesday. Have a great Wednesday!

Feb. 14, 2023

Feb. 14, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! These are our three-day rain totals. Most of us on the big island got around 2 inches of rain, and Utila was the big winner with over 4 inches.

There are a few lingering clouds at 7 a.m. and there may be a sprinkle here or there for the next couple of hours, but today we will dry out and the fresh air will be with us, so enjoy! Winds wil start to pick up this afternoon to around 20 mph. We’re starting out with seas about 3 feet, and they will pick up to around 5 feet overnight. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and windy, with daytime winds around 20 mph and 3 foot seas and nighttime winds around 30 mph and 5 foot seas. Friday the winds calm a bit to around 15 mph and the weekend looks calmer with scattered showers, though not as much rain as we had this past weekend. Have a great Tuesday!

Feb. 13, 2023

The number in the circle is rain since midnight. The number outside the circle is rain yesterday and today. Utila has a morning low of 69 (20.5 Celsius). The rest of us had lows of 70 or 71.

Feb. 13, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! We’re seeing some clearing over Guanaja and the east side. Today we will have a mix of sun and clouds, winds calming from where they are now, and a 50/50 chance of seeing another shower. Seas are about 4 feet on the north side and closer to 5 feet by Guanaja, but should calm to about 3 feet this afternoon. Tomorrow looks very nice, though the winds will start to pick up tomorrow night to 20 mph. Wednesday and Thursday are very windy and dry, with east winds 20 mph during the day and 30 mph at night with choppy seas. Winds calm on Friday and there’s a chance of rain Saturday. Have a great week!

Feb. 12, 2023

Good morning, Bay Islands. I did a video for the norther we are watching this morning.

If you like the video, please subscribe to my YouTube page.

If you prefer to read the forecast, a line of showers along the cold front is just to our west, moving in to Utila right now. Earlier this morning we got some light showers across the island.

We will have scattered showers today and tomorrow, giving most of us between an inch and three inches of rain.

Winds are turning to the north and should get to around 20 mph this evening, giving us choppy seas, especially on the north side, to around 4 feet (1.3 meters).

Temperatures on the coast of Belize are already cool, in the upper 60s (around 20 Celsius). I would be surprised if we get close to that here tomorrow morning.

Tuesday we will clear out and Tuesday night through Thursday we will be dry and windy, with winds 20 mph during the day and 30 mph at night. Next weekend looks calmer with a few scattered showers. Have a great Super Bowl Sunday!

Feb. 11, 2023

Good morning, Bay Islands. Last night most of the rain missed us to the north. There are a few clouds at 6:20 a.m. to our south that are moving west. They may give the west side and Utila a small chance of a shower during the morning hours, but most of today should be dry.

Here is the current location of our norther (cold front). It should arrive late this evening. The winds don’t look too bad. The highest winds from this cold front should be Sunday evening, but even then they should only be from the north 12-17 mph and seas around 4 feet, especially on the north side.

We will be partly cloudy Sunday and mostly cloudy Monday, with scattered showers both days (as well as Sunday night). This is the projected rain total from the European model through midnight Monday night. It keeps most of the rain to our west and gives Utila about two inches and Roatan about 1 inch.

This is the US GFS rain total. It gives Utila and the west side of Roatan about two inches and the east side and Guanaja about an inch. Expect more rain the further west you are.

Sunday evening into Monday morning we will have the freshest air, with temperatures in the lower 70s. Tuesday will be a fairly nice day with clearing skies. Tuesday night the east winds get gusty again through the middle of next week with dry conditions. Have a great weekend!

Feb. 10, 2023

Feb. 10, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands! We wake up to 20 mph winds and 4-5 foot seas (1.3 to 1.6 meters) on the south side. Today we will have windy and dry conditions, but clouds will be increasing as our cold front gets closer and tonight into tomorrow morning we should have some scattered showers.
Tomorrow winds will be around 15 mph turning to the northeast and seas around 3 feet (1 meter). Tomorrow there will be scattered showers, especially in the evening. Sunday looks like a pretty rainy day. Winds should be around 15-20 mph and seas on the north side may get up to 5 feet. The chance of rain continues through Monday morning, after that we should dry out. Starting Tuesday we will have a week of strong east winds and dry conditions. Have a great Friday!