June 15, 2022

The National Weather Service gives the storms only a 30 percent chance of forming a tropical storm.

June 15, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Today there is less belief that the storms off the coast of Costa Rica will become a tropical storm. The chance is down to 30 percent, according to the US National Weather Service. If the storms stay to our north, there is a good chance we will only get a little less than an inch of rain out of this on average.

Today winds should stay in the 15-20 mph range, with seas at 3 feet (1 meter) and a low chance of a scattered shower.

Tomorrow we have about a 40 percent chance of rain with winds from the east/northeast at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet.

Friday and Saturday are the days to look for rain, with west/southwest winds 5-10 mph.

Rain chances of around 40 percent continue Sunday through Tuesday. Have a great Wednesday!

A few of the models put the storm into tropical storm strength within 3 days.

June 14, 2022

June 14, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday brought a lot of clouds but not much rain after the early morning hours. It also got quite windy. I picked up 38 mph winds on Jonesville Point.

Today will continue windy and partly to mostly cloudy, with winds 25-30 mph from the east and 5 foot (1.6 meter) seas. Rain chances today are low, in the 20 percent range.

Tomorrow things should calm a little, to 17-22 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter). Rain chances continue low.

Satellite image at 6:45 a.m.

The big story is the mass of showers between Colombia and Nicaragua. Over the next few days it is expected to move northwestward. Yesterday the U.S. GFS model was trying to turn this into a tropical storm. Today it looks much less organized and much more likely to just be a lot of scattered showers starting Thursday evening and running through Saturday. Several models move most of the moisture into the Pacific to our south. The National Weather Service gives it a 40 percent chance of tropical development over the next five days. We’ll keep an eye on it.

National Weather Service prediction map giving storms north of Panama a 40 percent chance of tropical development over the next five days.

June 13, 2022

6:30 a.m. satellite image

June 13, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Most of us have seen a litttle rain, with the emphasis on a little. As of 6:30 a.m. the big winner has been Punta Blanca with a quarter of an inch, but for most of us it has just been a few hundredths.

As you can see in this morning’s satellite, there is a big bank of clouds to our north and west. That will keep us in the clouds most of the day and with a decent chance of rain, especially on the east side of the island and definitely for Guanaja. Winds should pick up this evening, from the east around 25 mph.

Tuesday and Wednesday still look like the dry days of the week.

Tuesday will be especially windy put of the east at 20-25 mph, but Wednesday will be calmer at 12-17 mph.

Thursday the winds calms and the rain chances increase into the weekend.

The GFS is trying to spin up a tropical storm to pass just to our north on Friday, while the European model puts it into the weekend. The National Weather Service gives it a 30 percent chance of development over the next five days. I’ll be very interested in seeing their opinion tomorrow.

June 12, 2022

June 12, 2022: Just a quick update today. Though we have been mostly clear, widely scattered showers are predicted to begin this evening and continue through tomorrow. Probably not a constant rain, but most of us should get some. Tuesday and Wednesday rain chances will be low before rising again Thursday into next weekend. Have a great Sunday!

June 11, 2022

June 11, 2022: Good morning Roatan! Last night about 10:30 we got a sharp gust of wind at 37 mph and a quick downpour of .15 of an inch. Politilly got about a tenth of an inch early this morning. If you got some rain, let us know in comments.

Today will be mostly sunny with only a small chance of a passing shower and east winds 20 mph. Seas will be 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters).

Tomorrow rain chances go up considerably, especially in the evening and overnight. Rain chances are high through Monday.

Rain chances are a little lower Tuesday and Wednesday and get higher Thursday through the weekend. Winds also get calmer starting Thursday.

Have a great weekend!

June 10, 2022

June 10, 2022: Good morning Roatan! This is the time of year when visitors to our island look at their preferred weather app and see a bunch of 60 percent rain chances and freak out thinking their vacation is going to be ruined. As my wife likes to say, that just means that you just sit back for a half hour or so, sip on your favority beverage under a shelter, and wait for the rain to pass and the sun to come back out. Those higher rain chances will be with us, especially as we get into next week.

Today we will have only a small chance of a passing shower with morning clouds and afternoon sun. Winds will be from the east 15-20 mph, getting toward 25 mph this evening, with 3-4 foot seas (1-1.3 meters).

Tomorrow the chance of a shower will be slightly higher, perhaps 40 percent, with similar winds and seas.

Sunday evening into Monday we have that 60-70 percent chance of rain. Conditions will be windier than normal for a rainy period, with continued 20 mph winds. Have a great Friday!

June 7, 2022

June 7, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! The wind has started picking up a bit and that helps with the heat.

Wind today will be 10-15 mph under mostly sunny skies. Seas will be 3 feet (1 meter) on the south side. Winds rise to 20-25 mph and seas to 5 feet (1.6 meters) with a small chance of a scattered shower toward evening.

Tomorrow winds will be 15-20 mph with 3-4 foot seas during the day and 22-27 mph with 5 foot seas at night. Again there is a small chance of seeing a passing shower.

Rain chances increase this weekend. Have a great Tuesday!

June 6, 2022

June 6, 2022: Good morning Roatan! It’s been hot! The temperature is in the low 90s, the sun is shining and there is little wind. That is the formula for a hot Roatan day. Coral View got cooled off yesterday with a quarter of an inch of rain midday, but most of the rest of us stayed dry.

Today will stay mostly sunny, calm and hot with about a 10 percent chance of a shower. Seas will be around 1 foot (.3 meters).

Tomorrow will be slightly windier with southeast winds around 10 mph during the day and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters). Tomorrow night the trade winds return with 20 mph winds and more chop in the sea. Rain chances tomorrow are around 20 percent.

Wednesday will be windy with daytime winds 20 mph and nighttime winds from the east at 25 mph. Seas will be 3-5 feet (.6 to 1.3 meters). Rain chances most of the rest of the week will be 20-30 percent, but over the weekend they rise to perhaps 50-50. Have a great week!

June 4, 2022

June 5, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Yesterday morning, the folks around Sandy Bay got three quarters of an inch, while much of the rest of the island stayed dry.

The main weather story through Tuesday will be the fairly calm winds and seas. There is a very small chance of a scattered shower during the period, but we will stay partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Tuesday night into Wednesday the easterly winds return. Rain chances increase this coming weekend. Have a great Sunday!

June 3, 2022

The infrared satellite from 8:45 a.m. shows soon-to-be Tropical Storm Alex to our north.

June 3, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! On the satellite image, we can see pretty clearly the structure of what will soon be Tropical Storm Alex. The rain we received in the middle of the night was from an outer wave of moisture coming off the system. (I can’t say an outer band, because the storm hasn’t gotten closed off circulation yet.) Most of us received between three quarters and an inch of much needed rain.

Today we should see decreasing clouds, especially in the afternoon and evening. The models pretty strongly agree we should get some rain tomorrow morning. Larry Rapp near West End tells me he’s seeing 2-3 foot waves at the reef and that is no doubt being churned up by the storm. Our winds will continue from the west today and tomorrow, but only around 10-15 mph. After tomorrow morning our rain chances go down for Sunday and Monday. Winds should remain fairly calm so those will be great days for outdoor activities. Stronger easterly winds return Wednesday. We are entering a period where most days will have around a 30 percent chance of showers, especially in the evenings and overnights. Have a great Friday!