Sept. 25, 2022

Tropical update for Sept. 25, 2022: Tropical Storm Ian continues to track a little further west than they expected, meaning our chances of getting some effects is a bit greater. Guanaja now has a 5 percent chance of picking up tropical storm force (39 mph) winds Monday morning. Our main effect should be northerly winds that come behind the hurricane, especially Thursday and Friday, if this goes according to the current forecast. This video is a bit long (8 minutes). Sorry, I get a little talkative when it comes to hurricanes.

Sept. 24, 2022

Tropical update for Sept. 24, 2022: You know that feeling you get when you are standing at the side of the road where the road curves, and car is coming right at you but you trust that it will turn away from you in order to stay on the road? That’s where we’re sitting right now with Tropical Storm Ian. Overnight the storm got better structure and it also moved west/SOUTHwest. But all the models say it will begin moving northwest, probably today and move south of Jamaica and toward Grand Cayman before either hitting western Cuba, or perhaps just missing off of Cuba’s western tip and entering the Gulf of Mexico. Exactly how for west it comes will affect our weather next week. It is possible we may see the very westernmost bands of the storm as it passes through the Caribbean on Monday. We probably won’t get much rain, because the western and southern sides of the storm are the driest, but we may get some clouds and, more importantly, some westerly winds and waves. Right now the forecast is for 10-15 mph and 2 foot seas, but keep an eye on it, and the seas will be worse the farther north you go. Through the middle of the week we should be relatively dry, but if the storm gets as strong as they think it will, it should pull northerly winds from North America down this far south. That means next Friday into next weekend could be rainy and cool, much like we get in a winter cold front, though probably not quite as cold. Right now next weekend looks pretty rainy. We’ll keep an eye on it. Exactly when it turns north will tell us a lot.

Sept. 24, 2022

Sept. 24, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! This morning, about 2 a.m. we got three quarters of an inch on Jonesville Point and throughout yesterday afternoon we saw several heavy showers here on the east side, though most rain gauges only picked up a few hundredths or tenths of an inch.

Our calm winds and seas continue through the weekend and we will continue to have decent chances of showers moving in and out. We’ll talk about Tropical Storm Ian and the impacts it will have on our weather in the upcoming week in the tropical update. Have a great weekend!

Sept. 23, 2022

Sept. 23, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! The west side of the island got quite wet last night, but pretty much all of us got some beneficial rain. West Bay reported 2.24 inches in a downpour that happened about 7 p.m. yesterday. West End got about an inch. Sandy Bay picked up about a quarter of an inch overnight, Coral View almost an inch, Politilly .65 and here on Jonesville Point .72. Utila also picked up an inch.

This morning we have partly cloudy skies and there are showers out to sea around the island. The sea itself is as flat calm as I’ve ever seen it on the south side. Today and tomorrow should remain quite calm, but rain chances are good, especially in the overnight hours. We have a clearer idea of what the tropical storm/hurricane will do and while it won’t directly affect us, we will definitely have some indirect effects. Monday we will have a westerly breeze about 15 mph. Our rain chances may actually be lower as the hurricane makes its closest pass, moving toward the Caymans and Cuba early in the week, but we will keep westerly winds through the week and those winds might turn to the north next Thursday and Friday, bringing us rains and temperatures a few degrees cooler than usual, almost like a mini-cold front. Have a great Friday!

Tropical outlook for Sept. 23, 2022

Tropical update for Sept. 23, 2022: Overnight we definitely got clarity as to where our storm is going and it is away from us. Tropical Depression Nine (probably soon to become Hermine) formed a little to the north of where we expected and it is expected to track west until tomorrow evening when a sharp turn to the north, toward Cuba and the Caymans is expected. The only change in our weather will be a switch in light breezes to westerly and MAYBE 2 foot (.6 meter) seas on the north side.

This is the US GFS model and you will notice that as it comes closest to us Monday we only get a moderate wind from the west on the very outskirts of the storm.

Sept. 22, 2022

Sept. 22, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We have a few clouds and showers around this morning with peeks of sunshine. Utila picked up about half an inch midday yesterday and .05 this morning. The location near Mud Hole picked up a whopping 2.46 inches yesterday. Most of the rest of us got little or no rain the last 24 hours ending 7 a.m.

Our calm winds and seas continue. It was a great day to be on the water yesterday and will be again today, except for the fact that there will probably be a few more clouds and showers around. Today is a day when it wouldn’t hurt to take an umbrella if you go out because there is a decent chance you will run into a downpour somewhere on the island. Winds will stay calm into the weekend, but we will continue to keep about a 40 percent chance of showers around. All eyes on the seas for what happens Monday with Invest 98L. Have a great Thursday.

Tropical update for Sept. 22, 2022

Tropical update for Sept. 22, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! I’m not doing a video today because we don’t know a lot more today than we did yesterday. Invest 98L is still sitting on the coast of Venezuela and has not formed into a tropical cyclone. When it does, we will know more about what general track it will take, but until then it is just speculation.

The “spaghetti” map shows a wide array of possibilities for the track of this storm. The National Hurricane Center suggests that in two days this storm will have escaped from the outflow of Hurricane Fiona and should begin to form a cyclone. That means we’ll know more on Saturday, and if the storm comes our way, Monday is the day to look out for. We’ll keep an eye on it.

Sept. 21, 2022

Sept. 21, 2022 Tropical Update: Good morning. We have a video explaining how forecast trends seem to indicate the Invest 98L (which should become Hermine) will move westward toward us before likely turning north toward Yucatan or Cuba around Monday. One correction: I say in the video that Eta and Iota were last year, but they were actually two years ago (time flies). Don’t forget to let folks know about our website roatanweather.org. Any who would like to chip in a buck or two to our weather service subscriptions can do so at patreon.com/roatanweather. Thanks!

Sept. 21, 2022

Sept. 21, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! I want to start of by saying I may have personally caused the rain last night by saying yesterday that there was nothing in the forecast to fill our cisterns. Most of us got a good rain last night. I got a quarter of an inch on Jonesville Point and West Bay got almost an inch. West End got two thirds of an inch, Sandy Bay an inch and a quarter, Coral View a third of an inch, Politilly only .08, and Punta Blanca .36.

We will continue with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and hot conditions with little to no wind and calm seas into the weekend. There will continue to be a small chance of a shower, especially at night, as all eyes are on whatever may be coming at the beginning of next week. We’ll do a video tropical update for that. Have a great Wednesday!

Sept. 20, 2022

Sept. 20, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We have some pretty calm weather in our forecast. Right now the seas are hardly 1 foot (.3 meters) and they should be that way for the rest of the week. Get ready for some hot weather with mostly clear skies and almost no wind. There will be a low chance of a shower, especially at night, but probably nothing to fill our water tanks. Have a great Tuesday!