The National Hurricane Center now has our storm near Guyana at a 70 percent chance of becoming at least a tropical depression in the next five days, and chances are good that the next 24 hours could see it actually become a tropical storm. It is entering and environment of low shear (winds that compete with and weaken tropical development at the higher levels of the atmosphere) and deep moisture.
The storm, which could become Bonnie, will hug the Venezuelan and Colombian coastlines, possibly even making landfalls and weakening somewhat in the process. But most models say it will survive into the Caribbean where it will have a rich environment for development.
If you look at the model intensity guidance, the important point for us is the 144-hour mark, which is when it would make landfall, likely in Nicaragua. At that point about half the models have it as a tropical storm (39-73 mph sustained winds) and about half have it as a category one hurricane (74-95 mph). Of course, if it makes landfall in Nicaragua, our winds wouldn’t be near that high. We would probably get 35 mph winds and choppy seas. Remember Eta and Iota in 2020 made landfall in the same general area as category 4/5 and we experienced winds that were at the most in the 40 mph range.
This is the Canadian model, and as you can see this predicts a worst-case scenario for us, with the storm hugging the northern coast of Honduras and cutting between us and La Ceiba. Again, this is a week out, so it lots of things can change, but stay weather aware as we get toward Saturday.
June 26, 2022: Good morning Roatan! We stayed dry the last 24 hours ending 8 a.m. Wind speeds for much of this week look to be stable, in the 10-17 mph range from the east, with 1-2 foot (.3 to .6 meter) waves. All in all it should be a nice week for swimming and boating. There will be small chances of rain, especially overnight tonight and tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday look like very dry, with perhaps a 10 percent chance of a popup shower. Thursday and Friday the rain chances go up with a wave of moisture. As for the potential for tropical weather this weekend, I will post a separate tropical update. Have a great Sunday!
June 25, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! We got a quick bit of rain early this morning and so did Politilly, but only a few hundredths of an inch. Today we will have a fifty fifty chance of rain, especially toward evening. Winds will be from the east/southeast 15-20 mph. Seas will be 2 feet (.6 meters), perhaps around 3 feet (1 meter) by evening. Rain chances will be lower tomorrow through Tuesday before going up again Wednesday and Thursday.
We are still looking at the possibility of a storm brewing in the Atlantic and coming this way. The clouds right now are off the coast of the Guyanas. We are a long way away from the storm getting to our neighborhood, which models predict would be around July 2. It is way too early to get worried, but it is unusual for so many models to have this much agreement this early in the game. The forecast map here is the European model. It is similar to the US model, but perhaps a little stronger. It shows the storm hitting midcoast of Nicaragua. We’ll keep an eye on it.
June 23, 2022 and tropical update: Good evening, Roatan! Sorry for missing this morning. Last night most of us got somewhere in the neighborhood of an inch of rain. It was long overdue and much needed.
As you may know by now, long-range forecasts are trying to bring a tropical system our way. We had a false alarm earlier, but this one is different, because more than one model agrees something is brewing in the eastern Atlantic and BOTH the GFS and the European model are bringing it close to us. If it happens, it would get near us around July 2. That is a long way away, but it is something to watch. Tomorrow will be a beautiful day, by the way, with calm winds and seas and a small chance of a shower. Winds pick up this weekend to around 20 mph. Have a great evening!
June 22, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! On the far western end of the island we had a morning shower giving us a few hundredths of an inch.
Today we will have moderate winds from the east/northeast at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet. Partly cloudy skies will give us a 30 percent chance of a passing shower.
Thursday and Friday winds will be light and variable with 1 foot seas. Those will be beautiful days for boatin, snorkeling and diving, or just sitting on the beach if that is your thing. Chance of rain should be about 40 percent on Thursday but only 20 percent on Friday. Winds pick up to 10-20 mph this weekend and the beginning of next week. Have a great Wednesday!
June 20, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! No rain the last 24 hours.
This morning we wake up with another big bank of clouds to our east, but again, it should dissipate as the day goes on. Winds will be from the east/southeast at 20 mph, increasing to around 30 mph this evening. Seas will be 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters). There will be a small chance (20 percent) of a scattered shower.
Tuesday winds will continue in the 20-25 mph range, but they will start to calm Wednesday and Thursday through Saturday morning should be quite calm, beautiful days on the sea.
Throughout the week there will be about 30 percent chance of a scattered shower. Right now it looks like the chance will increase over the weekend. Have a great week!
June 19, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Well, at least the cloud cover has kept the temperatures down. No rain over the last 24 hours as of 7 a.m. on Roatan. Radar shows some showers to our west. The recording station on Utila seems to be down, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they got some rain. There is a large complex of rain to our north and east this morning. That’s no guarantee we’ll get rain today, but we have a 50/50 shot. Winds and seas will stay calm until this evening, when winds pick up to around 20 mph. Tomorrow looks windy, with east winds 15-25 mph and perhaps 30 mph in the evening, out of the east. Rain chances are around 30 percent tomorrrow. Winds will get calmer Wednesday through the end of the week. It looks like all week we will have about a 30-40 percent chance of a shower. Have a great Sunday!
June 18, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! There is now a zero percent chance of tropical development from our storm, though there is still an area of scattered showers around. Most of us have gotten light amounts of rain over the last 24 hours ending 6 a.m.
Today will be mostly calm, with seas at 2 feet (.6 meters) and mostly cloudy skies with peeks of sun. We will have about a 40 percent chance of scattered showers.
Tomorrow will continue calm with scattered showers, though in the evening winds should pick up to around 20 mph and seas up to 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters).
Monday rain chances are lower, perhaps 20 percent, and conditions windier in the 20-25 mph range and seas at 4 feet.
Right now winds look calmer Wednesday through Saturday and rain chances are pretty good throughout the week, though again, these are scattered squalls that come and go with periods of sunshine. Have a great weekend!
June 17, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Midday yesterday most of the western half of the island got a good dose of rain. Sandy Bay and West Bay reported around half an inch, while West End got an inch and a half. Here on Jonesville Point we got no rain yesterday or as of 6 a.m. today, but hopefully that changes soon.
The satellite image here is from 6 a.m. today and, as you can see, the majority of the precipitation is to our east. Believe it or not, the center of the low pressure system is almost directly over Guanaja and should move westward as the day goes on. But with many low pressure systems, the west and south side are the driest. That means a good chance of rain today, but probably not a lot of rain and probably some sun as well. Winds will also be quite calm. Rain chances will perhaps be greater as we get into Saturday and Sunday. Winds should stay calm until Sunday night, picking up into the 20 mph range Sunday evening. Monday is looking quite windy right now, with winds possibly around 30 mph. Decent rain chances stick around through most of next week, perhaps getting a little less toward the end of the week. Have a great Friday!
June 16, 2022: Good morning, Roatan! Mid- and west- island locations got from half to three quarters of an inch of rain yesterday morning, while we on Jonesville Point only got .04 of an inch.
All eyes are on the storm that now has only a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical system. It looks more and more like it will just be an unorganized group of storms, especially as it passes over us the next 36 hours.
In the intensity models, you will notice that all models (except for one that has the system completely dying) have the storm at only 20-30 mph peak winds as it passes over us tomorrow. That is more of a squall than a storm.
Winds and seas should be fairly calm over the next couple of days and there will be a good chance of showers, especially starting tonight and running through tomorrow.
The European model (and many others) put our rain total at under an inch.
The US GFS model says about 2 inches for most of us through the weekend (the maps shown here are rain totals through midnight Sunday night/Monday morning). There will also be a chance of a rumble of thunder.
Saturday should be a very calm day and nice, if a little cloudy.
Trade winds start back up on Monday and Monday night could be quite windy. Have a great Friday!