Good morning Bay Islands! We wake up to calm winds and seas 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters). Today will be the last day of super-calm winds. Tomorrow through the weekend we will have moderate winds 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet (.6-1 meter). Next week looks super calm again. As for rain, there is not much in the forecast until the end of the month, maybe a slight chance Friday night into Saturday morning, but even that is very low.
The video I’m including is the forecast for moisture in the atmosphere. You will notice a lot of greens and blues coming down over us for the next week or so. That indicates drier air. Toward the end of the month we should get more reds, indicating moist air that can bring rain. Let’s hope. We’ll have a very low tide at 1:22 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!
May 16, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. No rain was recorded overnight on Roatan or Utila, but we saw rain on radar over toward Guanaja and Lisa Garcia reports that she picked up an inch over there. At 6:30 a.m. we have a small shower north of the island and one near Cayos Cochinos, but those should decrease as the day goes on.
We also got a little shake around 12:30 a.m. with a 4.2 earthquake. That’s pretty light as earthquakes go. In February we had a 5.5.
We wake up to calm winds and seas 1-2 feet (.3 to .6 meters). Those conditions should continue today and tomorrow. Starting Thursday we will have east winds 10-15 mph and seas 2-3 feet, nothing like the 30 mph winds of the past few weeks.
The next few days look dry. There is a small chance of an overnight shower Friday night and Saturday night, but otherwise we we look fairly calm and dry, great days to get out on the sea. Have a great Tuesday!
May 15, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands! It may not be much but many of us have seen some rain this morning. There are showers on radar at 7:40 a.m. and we will continue to have a chance through the morning hours. We will get more sun around noon and after and less of a chance of rain, but we will have another chance of showers tonight and early tomorrow morning. After that Wednesday and Thursday look dry and a small chance of overnight and early morning rain returns for Friday night into the weekend. Winds this morning are 15 mph and seas are 2 feet. They will remain around there today. Tomorrow and Wednesday look quite calm, with winds 3-7 mph and seas around 1 foot (.3 meter). After that winds pick up a little, but we’re not getting super-windy. Low tide today occurs around noon. Have a great week!
Good morning Bay Islands! This morning our winds are around 20 mph and seas 3-4 feet (1-1.3 meters) after getting up to 38 mph and 6 feet (2 meters) overnight. Today and tonight will not be quite as windy. Winds today will be from the east around 15 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter). Tonight they will only get up to 20-25 mph and 4 feet (1.3 meters). Tomorrow will be even calmer with winds from the northeast at 10-15 mph and seas at 2 feet (.6 meters). Tuesday and Wednesday will be quite calm, with winds 5-10 mph and seas at 1 foot (.3 meters).
We are still watching the chances for rain. This morning there are showers over toward Livingston, Guatemala and southern Belize, but those won’t come this way.
We have high clouds that hold no rain this morning. Those will give way to sun this afternoon, but we will get some clouds lower in the atmosphere tonight that will give us a small chance of rain overnight into tomorrow morning.
We’ll have a small chance of rain during the day tomorrow, but our best hope is for rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will be a 50/50 chance and I’m sorry I can’t say more than that. I expect to see rain on the radar, but whether it is out to sea or manages to hit the island will decide whether we get some relief from our dusty roads. Wednesday and Thursday look dry, but toward the weekend we will have small chances of overnight showers. Low tide is 11:13 a.m. Have a great Sunday!
Good morning Bay Islands. We awake to 25 mph winds and seas 4-5 feet. Today will continue windy and tonight we will get even stronger winds, 30-36 mph, and seas at 6 feet (2 meters). Be careful out there on the waters. The good news is that the winds should calm a bit tomorrow. Afternoon winds will be around 15 mph and seas at 3 feet. Sunday night will get a bit windy again, but we will really start noticing things calm on Monday, with 10-15 mph winds and 2 foot (.6 meter) seas and then Tuesday and Wednesday 5-10 mph winds and 1-2 foot seas (.3 to .6 meters).
After this weekend we’ll be done with 30 mph winds for at least the next week.We continue to have high clouds from the west. Even though our surface winds are from the east, our upper level winds are from the west, giving western and southern Honduras rain showers, but when those clouds hit the mountains, they rain themselves out and have no rain left to give us on the east and north side of Honduras. That’s part of the reason why we’ve been so dry. But this week we will have more moisture in the atmosphere and it looks like a rainy week for western Honduras. Unfortunately not all that moisture is going to make it over here.
The map I’ve included is the US GFS computer prediction for rainfall for the week ahead. As you can see, there is a blue hole over the islands, giving us only a quarter to half an inch of rain. But that is a quarter to half an inch more than we’ve been getting. Our best chance of getting it is Monday night through Tuesday night. Let’s hope we get it. Low tides are 10:25 a.m. and 11 p.m. Have a great weekend!
May 12, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands. We wake up to hazy skies and southeast winds 10-15 mph. The haze is Saharan dust mixed with clouds. You can see the brown color of the dust in the satellite map.
Today I’m going to say something I haven’t been able to say in awhile, and that is that I can’t guarantee it’s going to be totally dry today. The chance of rain this evening is VERY LOW and whatever rain anyone gets will pass quickly, but our chances are NOT ZERO the way they have been the last few weeks, probably more like 10 percent. We will remain windy and hazy through the weekend with a 10 percent chance of rain each day.
Our chances of rain go up on Monday and our winds and seas get calmer. Tuesday and Wednesday will be quite calm, calmer than we’ve seen in a couple of weeks. Monday night, Tuesday morning and Tuesday night will be our best chances of rain.
After that our rain chances go down, but they don’t go down to zero. I think we are going into a different weather pattern, more typical of June, where we have small nightly chances of seeing a shower. Low tides are 9:32 a.m. and 11 p.m. Have a great Friday!
Good morning, Bay Islands. We wake up with hazy clouds in the sky mixing with some Saharan dust and probably a little smoke, since the fires on the mainland are still going on and we have southeast winds this morning at 15-20 mph and seas 4-5 feet (1.3-1.6 meters). We will continue with windy, hazy conditions through the weekend. Our chances for rain this weekend are looking worse and worse, though I still think we may still see a lonely shower on radar somewhere this weekend. Monday through Wednesday remains our best chance to see a shower, especially during the night or early morning. After that we will have nightly 20 percent chances of rain. Low tide is 8:28 a.m. and 8:52 p.m. Have a great Thursday!
Good morning, Bay Islands! We are back in the strong easterly winds thorugh the weekend. Winds today will be 15-20 mph and seas at 3 feet (1 meter). Starting tonight nighttime winds will be 20-30 mph and seas around 6 feet (2 meters) and starting tomorrow daytime winds will be 17-25 mph and seas 4-5 feet (1.3-1.6 meters). Starting Saturday we will have small chances of showers, especially in the early morning hours. Our best chance of showers over the next week will be Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning. Small chances of morning showers stay around through the end of next week. Low tide is 7:34 p.m. Have a great Wednesday!
May 9, 2023: Good morning Bay Islands. We wake up with moderate winds and seas 15-20 mph and seas around 3 feet (1 meter). Today, tonight and tomorrow winds and seas will continue moderate, but tomorrow night into the weekend our trade winds will get stronger, getting up to 30-35 mph at night and seas up to 6 feet (2 meters). We still have hopes of some scattered nighttime and morning showers starting Saturday. The chances will start off low, about 20 percent for the weekend, but they will get better toward Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Another good thing that will happen is winds and seas will be quite calm next week. Low tide is 6:13 p.m. Have a great Tuesday!
May 8, 2023: Good morning, Bay Islands. We wake up to 15 mph winds and 3 foot seas. Winds and seas will be very moderate today and tonight, 10-15 mph and 2-3 foot seas during the day and 17-22 mph and 3 foot seas tonight. Low tide is 5 p.m. Tomorrow will be a bit windier and Wednesday through the weekend will be quite windy with nighttime winds around 30 mph and seas 5-6 feet in the evenings, 4-5 feet during the day. This weekend we start seeing very small chances of overnight and morning showers, perhaps 20 percent each day. That’s not much, but it’s better than what we’ve been getting. Toward the middle of next week those chose go up to maybe 50/50.
I’m posting the rainfall map of the US GFS model for the next two weeks. It predicts about an inch for us which isn’t much, but it’s better than nothing. Let’s hope we get it. Have a great week!